NASA Space Debris vs. Math

Following the breakup of an iridium com-sat (the holdings company that took over motorola’s old communication satellites for their old phones) into a russian trashcan satellite, there were estimated 10^4 pieces of debris left in orbit which could jeopardize future missions, directTV p0rn on demand, and possibly something else.
Perhaps more importantly, was a statement published on msnbc.com citing James Oberg, a veteran of NASA who works as an independent consultant, revealing this nugget.

Oberg said the limited accuracy of tracking data and computer calculations makes it impossible to predict collisions, only their probability. He said most satellites also have little fuel to escape what most likely would be a false alarm.

Perhaps I am just jealous that I’m not a rocket scientist, but how can you have limited accuracy of a calculation?  Either 1+1 = 2 or …does 1+1 only equal 2 28.3% of the time?

If so.. if we have just now proven that math only is right part of the time, would that provide an adequate escape from contractual obligations?  taxes?  the low view counter on my webpage?  Or maybe he just said something that was beyond the subcontracted typists that msnbc pays to type drivel up.

Now that I think about it.  I’m tempted to go with the cheap-journalism, although hesitantly optimistic that that explains low pageviews.